A new report reveals a deeper, underreported story behind the Lake Chad crisis: this is not just a conflict zone - it’s a complex environmental system where climate change, natural resources and insurgency are tightly intertwined.
While Lake Chad is often framed as a “disappearing lake,” our research shows a more nuanced reality. The lake has shrunk dramatically, now less than a tenth of its 1960 size, but has transformed into a dynamic mosaic of wetlands, islands and seasonal waters that sustain millions of people
N’Djamena / Lake Chad Basin, March 2026 – Armed conflict, climate change and shrinking natural resources are colliding in the Lake Chad region, reshaping livelihoods for millions. A new GRID-Arendal report reveals how insurgent groups, environmental pressures and displacement are deeply intertwined, turning one of Africa’s most vital ecosystems into both a lifeline and a battleground.
This matters because the Lake Chad crisis is often misunderstood as a simple story of drought or terrorism, when in reality, it is a complex system where environmental degradation, climate shocks and conflict feed off each other. Missing this bigger picture risks ineffective policies and failed interventions. Understanding how natural resources, livelihoods and insecurity are linked is critical not only for stabilising the region, but for protecting ecosystems, preventing further displacement, and avoiding similar climate-conflict crises elsewhere in Africa.
“This crisis is not just about conflict or climate. It’s about how the two are reinforcing each other in ways that are putting both people and ecosystems at risk,” Natalia Skripnikova, expert on Nature impact, said. “If we don’t understand these connections, we risk missing the solutions needed to build lasting stability in the Lake Chad region.”
“Lake Chad was once one of the largest lakes in the world by surface area. Since 1960, the water level has dropped, and the lake’s surface area has shrunk by about 90%. However, it has not disappeared: What was once a continuous body of water is now a rich mosaic of water, wetlands, islands, and seasonally flooded areas. The area is a reservoir of water that sustains millions of people, with a natural resource economy that provides food, income and livelihoods,” says Louise Lieberknecht, Senior Expert, Marine Sustainability.
Focusing on Lake Chad and its surrounding areas across Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria, the report highlights how environmental change, including shifting rainfall patterns, ecosystem degradation, and resource scarcity, interacts with socio-economic pressures and conflict. It shows that these dynamics cannot be understood in isolation but must be viewed as part of a broader socio-ecological system.
What You’ll Find
· A clear explanation of how conflict impacts ecosystems, including vegetation loss, pollution, and pressure on natural resources
· Insights into how environmental change, especially climate variability and water scarcity, shapes conflict dynamics
· Analysis of the natural resource economy, including farming, fishing, and pastoralism, and how it is linked to insecurity and livelihoods
· Exploration of displacement, climate change, and governance as cross-cutting factors influencing both environment and conflict
· A systems perspective that connects environmental, social, economic, and political drivers of instability
NOTES TO EDITORS
Download a copy of the report
Listen to the companion podcast:
YouTube: https://lnkd.in/eVHvR-mg
Spotify: https://lnkd.in/enMhzH9F
Apple: https://lnkd.in/e_D9F_PW
Acast: https://lnkd.in/esnN9UbS
About GRID-Arendal
GRID-Arendal is a Norway-based, non-profit environmental organisation and UNEP-linked think tank, founded in 1989, supporting environmental decision-making through science-based knowledge and analysis.
About other partners
This report was produced as part of the project Managing Climate, Peace and Security Risks from the Borderlands of the Lake Chad (CPS-Lake Chad) funded by the Foreign and Commonwealth
Development Office (FCDO via the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT)
initiative, led by the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Affairs (NUPI).
For more information, please contact:
press@grida.no
Release date: 22 Apr 2026
