Indus basin future climate – Rainfall & Temperature
Rainfall: Precipitation is projected to increase in summer over the northern, central-eastern and southern parts of the Indus basin, while over the central-western part of the basin it is projected to decrease. In the regions of highest rainfall along the mountain range, the increase is projected to be between 10–25%. Winter precipitation is also projected to decrease in the central-western part of the basin, as is summer precipitation. Whereas in the northern and southern parts of the basin, it is projected to increase between 5–10%. In terms of extreme rainfall events, a study by Rajbhandari et al. (2014)105 suggests an overall increase in the number of rainy days over the northern part, and a decrease over the southern part of the basin. However, it also projects a decrease in the number of rainy days accompanied by an increase in rainfall intensity in the border area between the upper and lower basins, where the rainfall amount is highest. Temperature: In summer, a major part of the basin is projected to warm by 2–3°C and up to 5°C under RCP 4.5 – and even more under RCP 8.5 in some pockets in the northern part of the basin. The southern part of the basin is projected to warm by a lesser amount, ranging from 1–2°C. Winter is projected to warm by 2–4°C across the basin in both scenarios, with very few areas either exceeding 4°C or lower than 2°C.
Year: 2015
From collection: The Himalayan Climate and Water Atlas
Cartographer: Riccardo Pravettoni